Sunday evening was winding down as Sean McDermott finished his press conference right after the Bills pulled off a thrilling 44-32 win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. You’d think the Buffalo coach would head home, grab a good meal, and relax on the couch. But no such luck. The Bills have a quick turnaround, they’re hitting the road to face the Houston Texans on Thursday night. It’s a massive game, especially since Buffalo is still chasing that AFC East lead that New England just refuses to give up.

McDermott said, “Yeah, I’m going back to the office, maybe say hi to my family, put my kids to bed if I can, then it’s right back to work. NFL life doesn’t slow down for anyone, so we’ll be back at it soon.”

The Bills' victory over Tampa Bay really came down to Josh Allen shaking off a shaky start. Let’s be honest, he didn’t come out firing perfectly at first. But once he found his groove, the reigning league MVP showed why he is who he is, throwing six total touchdowns and dominating. This was especially important after the Bills’ tough loss in Miami the week before. That defeat caused their Super Bowl chances to take a nosedive.

Now, the challenge is keeping the momentum going. Even though they won, the Bills made some mistakes: three turnovers, letting Tampa Bay take the lead five times, giving up 32 points, 202 yards on the ground, and allowing the Bucs to convert more than half their third downs (9 of 16). Still, they managed to pull out the win. McDermott said, “They’re learning how important it is to be ready every week. This was a tough game, but the team showed real toughness today. That’s what you need if you want to win down the stretch.”

Over in Houston, the Texans are riding a bit of momentum too. Two weeks ago, they pulled off an amazing comeback, scoring 26 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to beat Jacksonville. Then Sunday, although they struggled against the NFL’s worst team, they managed a last-second 16-13 win in Tennessee to even out their record at 5-5. That puts them right on the edge of the playoff hunt.

Texans coach DeMeco Ryans said, “It’s always good to go into a game with the feel-good vibe of a win. Thursday against the Bills, a Super Bowl contender, is going to be a battle. We just keep plugging along and do whatever it takes to win.”

Buffalo Bills’ Key to Winning

The Bills will definitely need that toughness McDermott talked about, especially against Houston’s defense, which is the best in the league. The Texans rank third against the run, allowing just 87.1 yards per game, and third against the pass, giving up only 171 yards per game. When you add those up, Houston’s defense allows just 258.1 yards and 16.3 points per game, number one in the NFL overall.

Houston has stars all over the place on defense. Edge rushers Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter make one of the best sack duos in the NFL, with a combined 16.5 sacks and 102 pressures this season. In the secondary, Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter are lockdown corners. Linebackers EJ Speed and Azeez Al-Shaair are tough against the run, and safety Jalen Pitre, who might be back after missing two games with a concussion, has been outstanding.

For Josh Allen, this will be his toughest test this season. He had a rough time in Houston last year too, one of the worst games he’s had. The key for the Bills will be to let offensive coordinator Joe Brady unleash Allen the way he did against Tampa Bay, throwing long and hunting for big plays. Trying to run slow, steady drives won’t work against this defense. The Bills need to be aggressive and strike hard.

Houston Texans’ Key to Winning 

The Texans’ game plan is simple: play clean, efficient football and let their defense do the heavy lifting. They've allowed only 163 points this season, which is the fewest points allowed by any NFL team with at least five losses through 10 games since the 2003 Buccaneers. If Houston can force turnovers or special teams mistakes from Buffalo, that would be a huge boost in a game where scoring 20-plus points might be tough.

Running has been a struggle for the Texans, they’re ranked 23rd in rushing, largely because star Joe Mixon has missed the whole season. Nick Chubb and rookie Woody Marks have tried to pick up the slack, but this Houston ground game hasn’t been great. Still, the Bills aren’t good against the run either, so this game might be the Texans’ best chance to get something going on the ground and take some pressure off backup quarterback Davis Mills.

Matchup to Watch: Bills vs Texans

Davis Mills is likely to start his third straight game for Houston, filling in for injured C.J. Stroud. Surprisingly, that might be a good thing for the Texans. Mills has played well since he took over in Week 9 against a strong Denver defense. One big plus for Houston has been star wide receiver Nico Collins. With Stroud, Collins averaged 56.5 yards per game, but with Mills, that jumps to 101 yards per game. Last year against Buffalo, Collins caught a 67-yard touchdown before suffering a hamstring injury, but the Texans still won 23-20.

Other weapons for Houston include tight end Dalton Schultz and rookie receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylen Noel, but clearly, Houston’s offense runs through Collins, who has been targeted 79 times and helped generate 29 first downs this season.

Wilson Pick Focus: Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans (Bills ML, U 43.5, -110)

I trust Buffalo to go on the road and handle business, but I’m not expecting a shootout. Houston brings the NFL’s No. 1 scoring defense into this matchup, giving up just 16.3 points per game, and their entire identity revolves around slowing games down and forcing mistakes. That’s exactly the kind of defense that can bait Josh Allen into a couple of risky throws, even after a six-touchdown performance against Tampa Bay. Buffalo’s offense is explosive, but Allen’s turnovers always hover in the background, and the Texans’ +6 turnover differential is built to take advantage of that.

The Bills will still have the edge, though. Their pass defense sits near the top of the league, holding quarterbacks to 169.7 yards per game and generating pressure at a top-five rate. With Houston trending toward being without C.J. Stroud and the Bills possibly missing Dalton Kincaid, this matchup leans heavily into Buffalo’s defensive strengths. The Texans can move the ball in spots with Davis Mills, but not consistently enough to win a track meet.

When it comes to the total, I’m not buying into a fast-paced offensive game. Houston’s offense doesn’t push the tempo, and their defense limits explosive plays better than anyone in football. Factor in Houston’s top-three run defense, and both teams are going to have to work for yards all night. That’s exactly the formula that drags a total down.

I’m backing Buffalo to win, but I’m leaning Under in what should feel like a controlled, methodical primetime matchup rather than a fireworks show. You can lock in this winning combination of the Bills ML and the Under 43.5 (-110) now at Bankroll U!