The New England Patriots are still shaking off that tough 35-31 loss to the Buffalo Bills, but they've got a shot at redemption this weekend, and it'll be under the lights with the whole country watching. Their Week 16 clash against the Baltimore Ravens got bumped to Sunday night, which feels right for a game loaded with pressure.

The New England Patriots (11-3-0) visit M&T Bank Stadium to take on the Baltimore Ravens (7-7-0) on Dec. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EST in Baltimore, MD. New England needs this win to hold onto their slim one-game lead over the Bills in the AFC East. For the 7-7 Ravens, anything short of a victory could crush their playoff dreams. The stakes alone scream close game, and when you dig into the matchup breakdowns, it backs that up big time.

Passing Game Breakdown

Patriots pass offense vs. Ravens pass defense: New England's passing game hit a wall in the second half against Baltimore earlier this year, but they've got the tools to test the Ravens' defense, which sits 17th in EPA per dropback at 0.064. Drake Maye is playing like an MVP-level quarterback right now. Baltimore's pass rush hasn't been great this season, so Maye should have plenty of time in the pocket to work through his reads without hurrying. The real wildcard? The Patriots' receivers and whether they can win against man coverage consistently. If the Ravens mix it up from their usual zone looks, New England's pass catchers will have to step up from last week.

Patriots pass defense vs. Ravens pass offense: The Pats struggled to contain Buffalo's tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid last Sunday, and Baltimore's Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely are just as dangerous, one of the league's top tight end pairs. This could be huge in passing downs, especially since New England's cornerbacks should hold their own against the Ravens' wideouts. That assumes Carlton Davis and Marcus Jones are good to go; both missed Wednesday's practice with injuries. If either sits, Baltimore gains an advantage, particularly if the Pats' pass rush keeps being inconsistent.

Running Game Breakdown

Patriots rushing offense vs. Ravens run defense: The Patriots gashed Buffalo on the ground last week, racking up 246 yards on 25 carries with a couple of long touchdown bombs. But the Ravens are a tougher matchup, their run defense ranks 12th in EPA per run at -0.095, way better than Buffalo's 31st spot heading into that game. It might not sound like a huge gap, but it could slow down an offense that hasn't proven it can bring that ground game every week. A ton depends on Baltimore's linebacker availability, but we're giving the home team a slight nod for now.

Patriots run defense vs. Ravens rushing offense: The first three matchups feel pretty even, but this one's not even close. New England's run defense has been rough lately, especially since losing Milton Williams to an ankle injury, he's out again this week. Linebacker Robert Spillane's status is iffy too. If he's sidelined for a second straight game, expect echoes of last Sunday: Buffalo piled up 171 rushing yards by exploiting gaps up front and hitting the second level. Baltimore's offense leads the NFL in yards per carry at 5.2, so they're primed to feast on those weaknesses.

New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens (Under 48.5, -115).

While the star power of Lamar Jackson and Drake Maye might tempt bettors toward the Over, the underlying data and situational factors point toward a low-scoring, playoff-style battle. Baltimore’s offense has been inconsistent over the last month, and this matchup is particularly dangerous for Jackson. Historically, four of his five losses this season have come against man-heavy defenses. The Patriots deploy man coverage on 30.9% of defensive snaps, the ninth-highest rate in the league, which is exactly the scheme that tends to frustrate Jackson's rhythm.

Baltimore’s best path forward is through the ground game, but that usually results in a running clock rather than a scoreboard explosion. Even with the Patriots’ run defense showing recent cracks, allowing 133 rushing yards per game over their last three contests without DT Milton Williams, a heavy dose of Derrick Henry actually favors the Under. By leaning into the run, the Ravens shorten the game and limit the total number of possessions. This is especially true if New England is missing key defensive anchors like Harold Landry III or Robert Spillane, who are both questionable after missing practice earlier this week.

On the other side of the ball, the Patriots have clearly shifted into a "protection mode" for Drake Maye. Josh McDaniels has embraced a run-first identity, as evidenced by New England rushing on 47% of their snaps (7th in the NFL). In last week's loss to Buffalo, Maye attempted only 23 passes despite the high-stakes environment. With Baltimore's defense allowing an average of just 19.7 points over their last three games and ranking 7th in red-zone efficiency, Maye will likely find it difficult to turn long drives into touchdowns.

Environmental factors further cement this play. We are looking at frosty conditions and 19 mph winds on the first official day of winter in Baltimore. These "heavy-air" scenarios typically suppress the deep ball and favor the methodical, clock-bleeding styles that both Todd Monken and Josh McDaniels are currently deploying.

While the public may be looking at New England's recent Over trend or the historical high-scoring nature of this series, those totals usually settled around 45 points. At 48.5, the line is inflated by name recognition. Expect a physical, field-position-oriented slugfest where the clock is the biggest winner.

Bankroll U specializes in identifying these inflated totals where public perception of a "shootout" clashes with the cold reality of defensive schemes and weather. When the market prices a game based on star power, our analysis pivots to the efficiency metrics and coaching tendencies that actually dictate the final score. To get ahead of the move and start betting with institutional-level precision, lean on the expert picks from our playmakers at Bankroll U. We don't just follow the trends; we find the value.