Throughout the season, there have been moments when it seemed neither the Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) nor the Baltimore Ravens (8-8) truly wanted to claim the AFC North title. The outcome is a critical Sunday Night matchup on NBC and Peacock, with the division championship and the final playoff berth on the line.

The Ravens began the year as Super Bowl favorites. Yet they managed just one win in their first six games. Lamar Jackson and his teammates then turned things around, securing five consecutive victories. This surge positioned them as the frontrunners for the AFC North. That momentum did not last. Baltimore suffered a home loss on Thanksgiving Night to Joe Burrow and an injury-plagued Bengals team, followed by another defeat at home the next week against Pittsburgh. They rebounded by shutting out the Bengals in Cincinnati and building an 11-point lead over the Patriots midway through the fourth quarter. 

Progress appeared solid, but they relinquished that lead and lost the game. Last weekend, with Jackson out, Derrick Henry stepped up. The veteran running back delivered 216 rushing yards and four touchdowns in a victory over Green Bay. It is reasonable to expect the Ravens to prevail on Sunday night and capture the division. However, little has followed the expected path for Baltimore so far.

The Steelers' season unfolded in stark contrast. They won four of their first five games, taking an early lead in the North. From there, they lost five of seven. Aaron Rodgers appeared past his prime. Mike Tomlin's coaching messages seemed to lose their impact with the players. 

The Steel Curtain defense showed vulnerabilities. True to form, though, the Steelers rallied under Tomlin, winning three in a row, including a 27-22 decision over Baltimore on December 7. This set up a Week 17 win against Cleveland, putting the AFC North in their grasp. As with the Ravens, the narrative derailed. Pittsburgh resembled neither a playoff team nor a division winner in their 13-6 loss to the Browns.

It feels fitting, in an ironic sense, that these two teams must face each other to determine playoff qualification.

Game Details

• Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026  
• Time: 8:20 PM EST  
• Site: Acrisure Stadium  
• City: Pittsburgh, PA  

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Steelers +3.5, Under 40.5)

When the schedule-makers put Baltimore (8-8) and Pittsburgh (9-7) in the season finale, they surely envisioned exactly what we have on Sunday night: a winner-take-all clash for the AFC North title. While the Ravens arrive as 3.5-point road favorites, history and current situational trends suggest the smart play is with the home underdog and a low-scoring affair.

Pittsburgh has been in superior form this season, going 3–1 both straight up and against the spread in their last four games. Mike Tomlin’s mastery in this rivalry cannot be overstated, the Steelers are 8–2 straight up in their last 10 meetings against Baltimore. Furthermore, Tomlin is a league-best 24–10–3 ATS as a home underdog since 2003. With the division on the line at Acrisure Stadium, the atmosphere will be electric, favoring a Steelers unit that has already beaten the Ravens once this season.

The biggest question mark involves Lamar Jackson, who is battling a back contusion that sidelined him last week. While he logged a full practice on Wednesday and is "very optimistic" he will play, he likely won't be at 100% mobility. That is a dangerous proposition against a Steelers front seven that is expected to welcome back T.J. Watt from a lung injury. Pittsburgh’s defense has been elite over the last month, posting a league-best 31.3% rushing success rate allowed. They limited Derrick Henry to 3.8 yards per carry in their first meeting and have the personnel to prevent him from taking over the game.

On the other side of the ball, the Ravens’ defense has struggled to generate a pass rush, ranking 30th in sacks. This should provide Aaron Rodgers with clean pockets, similar to the first meeting where he threw for 284 yards. While the Steelers will be without star receiver DK Metcalf (completing a two-game suspension), their offensive efficiency in the red zone (59.6% TD conversion) significantly outclasses Baltimore’s (47.5%).

The weather forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-20s, which historically favors a defensive struggle. The Under is 8–2 in the last 10 games of this rivalry, and with the stakes this high, expect both teams to lean on their ground games and play field-position football. Between the chilly conditions and the physical nature of these two defenses, this game profiles as a classic 20–17 type of battle.

Winning in Week 18 requires an elite understanding of roster health and the legendary "Tomlin as an underdog" factor. Bankroll U is your ultimate resource for these situational plays, providing the deep-data analysis and expert picks from our playmakers to help you find the edge when the division is on the line. Whether you're tracking Lamar Jackson's practice reps or T.J. Watt's return to the lineup, our platform ensures you have the sharpest intel before the final Sunday Night Football kickoff of the year. Master the divisional rounds and beyond with Bankroll U.

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