Two NFC teams with their playoff hopes on the line are about to face off on Thursday Night Football, and it already feels like a do-or-die game before the postseason even starts. The Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1) are hosting the Detroit Lions (7-5) in Week 14, and even though the records look pretty close, these two squads are heading in very different directions.

Detroit has been stumbling lately. Over the last three games, they took some hard hits from Philadelphia and Green Bay and barely squeezed past the struggling Giants in overtime. On the other hand, Dallas has been hot, they’re undefeated in their last three games, beating the Eagles, Chiefs, and Raiders one after the other like they’re knocking off names on a checklist.

Dallas will be looking to keep their streak alive. Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. EST at Ford Field.

The Lions are coming off a tough 31-24 loss to the Packers on Thanksgiving, placing them third in the NFC North with just five games left in the regular season. Meanwhile, Dallas, fresh off a 31-28 win over Kansas City on Thanksgiving, has won three straight games and climbed to second place in the NFC East after their narrow 24-21 win over the reigning Super Bowl champs, Philadelphia, the week before.

Right now, both teams are just outside the playoff spots in the NFC. Detroit’s playoff chances sit at 32 percent, just one game behind the 49ers, who hold the final playoff spot with an 8-4 record. Dallas has slightly lower odds at 26 percent, sitting in ninth place in the conference.

The Lions’ defense has been shaky lately, which could spell trouble against Dallas, whose offense ranks third in the league. Detroit’s defensive coordinator, Kelvin Sheppard, has seen his unit give up over 350 yards in each of the past two games, including getting torched for 517 yards by the Giants in Week 12. The defense has clearly slipped, and now faces a Cowboys offense that’s averaging 29.3 points per game and leads the league with 4,717 yards through 12 games.

A big part of Detroit’s defensive struggles has been their weak pass-rush. Over the last two weeks, they’ve managed just one sack total, and none against Green Bay’s Jordan Love on Thanksgiving. That lack of pressure is going to make things even tougher against Dallas.

On top of that, the Lions won’t have their full offensive firepower available. Veteran QB Jared Goff will be missing two key targets: tight end Sam LaPorta, who’s out for the season with a back injury, and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, who hurt his ankle against Green Bay and might be sidelined for weeks.

All things considered, the Lions have a big challenge ahead. They’ll need to dig deep to slow down a Cowboys team that has plenty of momentum right now.

Wilson Focus Pick: Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions (Cowboys +3, O 54.5 -108)

I’m leaning Cowboys +3 and Over 54.5 because this matchup lines up almost perfectly with the version of Dallas we’ve seen emerging since their Week 10 bye. Detroit isn't a team I'm writing off, but their offensive line is banged up, and this is one of the worst weeks imaginable to face a Dallas front that ranks No. 1 in pressure rate, QB hits, and hurries. Jared Goff has taken eight sacks over the last three games and has been under constant heat, now he's facing a defense that just got three on Patrick Mahomes.

Dallas looks dangerous. Their defensive turnaround has been fueled by Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson, and they're playing confident, clean football. With Amon-Ra St. Brown highly unlikely to play, the Lions are too offensively compromised to lay three points against a team that just beat the Eagles and Chiefs. The Cowboys have a real chance to win this outright. 

As for the total, I'm rolling with Over 54.5. Both offenses rank top-three in scoring, and both defenses have clear, exploitable weaknesses. The Lions' offense can keep the ball moving, especially on the ground with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, against a Cowboys defense that is vulnerable in run support and, critically, ranks dead last in the NFL in opponent third-down conversion percentage. With both teams struggling to hold opponents in the red zone (29th and 31st in touchdown percentage), this game has shootout written all over it.

Lock in the Cowboys +3 and the Over 54.5, the perfect combination for Thursday Night Football at Bankroll U!