The NFC West crown is up for grabs tonight when the L.A. Rams take on the Seattle Seahawks in what should be a thriller on Thursday Night Football. These are two of the NFL's top dogs right now. The Rams just pulled off a wild 41-34 shootout win against the Detroit Lions, while the Seahawks barely held on for a gritty victory over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday.

Both teams are sitting pretty at 11-3. The Rams have won their last two games and boast a solid 5-2 record on the road this year. Seattle's on a hot streak with four straight wins and a matching 5-2 mark at home. One bummer for L.A.: star wideout Davante Adams is sidelined with a hamstring injury and expected to sit this one out.

Kickoff's at 8:15 p.m. ET from Lumen Field in Seattle. Head-to-head, it's dead even at 28 wins apiece all-time. The Rams snagged the last meeting back in November, 21-19.

Why the Rams Could Cover the Spread

The Rams' engine is humming thanks to MVP frontrunner Matthew Stafford. This guy's a vet who's started 14 games, hitting 66.4% of his throws for 3,722 yards, 37 touchdowns, just five picks, and a sparkling 112.2 passer rating. Last Sunday against the Lions, he went 24-of-38 for 368 yards, two scores, and one interception. Before that, he lit up the Arizona Cardinals on Dec. 7, completing 22 of 31 for 281 yards and three TDs in a 45-17 blowout.

Don't sleep on wide receiver Puka Nacua, he's one of L.A.'s go-to guys. Over 13 games, he's hauled in 102 catches for 1,367 yards (13.4 yards per grab) and six touchdowns. Nacua's got 23 plays of 20+ yards, with a longest of 39, plus 487 yards after the catch and 66 first-down conversions. Oh, and he's even chipped in on the ground with eight rushes for 81 yards and a score. (Check out SportsLine for the best team to back here.)

Why the Seahawks Could Cover the Spread

Seattle's attack runs through eighth-year QB Sam Darnold. In 14 starts, he's completing 67.4% of his passes for 3,433 yards, 22 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and a 102 rating. In that close win over the Colts on Sunday, he was 22-of-36 for 271 yards, highlighted by a 39-yard bomb. A week earlier on Dec. 7, he diced up Atlanta, going 20-of-30 for 249 yards, three TDs, and one pick in a 37-9 rout.

Darnold's favorite target? Third-year stud Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He's got 96 receptions on the season across 14 games for 1,541 yards and nine touchdowns. JSN's exploded for 25 plays of 20+ yards (long of 63), with 454 yards after catch and 66 first downs. Against Atlanta, he balled out with seven grabs for 92 yards and two scores.

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (Rams -1.5, +102)

Matthew Stafford and the Rams represent the most complete offense this Seattle defense has seen in weeks, arguably since the Seahawks’ 21–19 loss to Los Angeles back in Week 11. Over their recent stretch, Seattle has faced a soft run of quarterback competition, drawing rookie Cam Ward, backup Max Brosmer, a 37-year-old Kirk Cousins, and a 44-year-old Philip Rivers fresh out of retirement. This is a massive step up in class.

Stafford is playing some of the best football of his career, and the Rams don’t need him to light up the box score to win games. Los Angeles controlled the earlier meeting without relying on explosive passing numbers. Seattle, by contrast, needs Sam Darnold to play well to keep pace. While Darnold has exceeded expectations overall, his struggles surface against disciplined defenses, evidenced by the four interceptions the Rams forced from him just over a month ago.

The betting trends here are undeniable. Los Angeles is on a legendary 17–3 ATS run in December. They are already 2–0 ATS this month, scoring 86 combined points and clearing 500 yards of offense in back-to-back games. Even with Davante Adams likely sidelined with a hamstring injury, this system just hung 519 yards on Detroit. The Rams are also 11–2 ATS in their last 13 road games, proving they travel as well as any team in the league.

Seattle’s recent form raises red flags. They narrowly escaped a "rust-shaking" Philip Rivers and the Colts as double-digit favorites, failing to score a single touchdown and settling for six field goals. The offense has cooled noticeably, and Darnold has historically struggled in standalone matchups against Sean McVay’s squad (0–3 against the Rams since 2024).

With both teams sitting at 11–3, this is the battle for the NFC West. I’m backing the team that is peaking at the right time, thrives on the road, and has the psychological edge in the head-to-head matchup.

The Rams' December dominance continues as they solve the Darnold puzzle once again. Rams -1.5 — Los Angeles takes control of the West.

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