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Rams vs Falcons MNF Preview: McVay Tree, Odds & Best Bet

Rams vs Falcons MNF betting preview with odds, McVay coaching-tree angles, matchup analysis, and why Los Angeles is positioned to cover as a road favorite.




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Raheem Morris is over there in Atlanta, basically trying to get his Falcons squad to play just like Sean McVay's Los Angeles Rams. The thing is, the scoreboard tells the story, it's been tough for him to pull off that same magic.

The Rams are sitting pretty at 11-4 under McVay, and they're looking to boost their spot in the playoffs when they take on the 6-9 Falcons this Monday night. LA's tied with San Francisco for second in the brutal NFC West, while Atlanta's playoff dry spell just hit eight straight years.

Morris knows the Rams' playbook inside out, he was their defensive coordinator under McVay from 2021 to 2023. He's even got five assistants from that staff, including offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, who worked with McVay too.

"We definitely copy and practice a ton of what they do, and we wanna keep that going," Morris said about the Rams.

This lost season for Atlanta might put Morris' job on the line, he's 14-18 over two years. But hey, back-to-back wins against Tampa Bay and Arizona prove the players are still buying in. If they can knock off the Rams, it'd make a real strong argument for giving Morris a third shot in Atlanta.

Rams Bouncing Back, Falcons Finding Their Groove

The Rams are shaking off that wild 38-37 overtime heartbreaker to the Seattle Seahawks. They're tops in the NFL for points scored and total yards right now. Matthew Stafford's owning the air game, leading the league with 40 touchdown passes, 4,179 yards through the air, and a 112.1 passer rating. Puka Nacua? He's got 114 catches, most in the league.

Over on the Falcons' side, they've won three of their last five with Kirk Cousins under center, ever since Michael Penix Jr. went down with a season-ending knee injury. Bijan Robinson's tearing it up too, leading everybody in scrimmage yards.

Morris gets that it's not all about straight-up copying the Rams, there's a "definite balance" to it.

"You take what you can steal from the Rams, then you build your own thing, your own identity right here in your building," he said. "But that stuff takes time with the whole team."

Stakes Beyond the Playoffs: That Draft Pick Drama

For the Rams, it's not just about climbing the playoff ladder. A win here could juice up their 2026 first-round NFL draft pick too.

Remember, the Falcons shipped their 2026 first-rounder to the Rams this year to grab edge rusher James Pearce Jr. at No. 26 overall. Right now, heading into the week, that pick's sitting at No. 11. Beat Atlanta, and the Rams could slide into the top 10.

Atlanta didn't stop there, they took another edge guy, Jalon Walker, at No. 15. Pearce and Walker are leading all NFL rookies in sacks with 8.5 and 5.5, respectively. The Falcons are second in the league with 50 sacks this year, a huge jump from dead last with just 31 last season.

They also snagged a third-round pick from that Rams deal last year, which they used on safety Xavier Watts. He's got three picks, tying for the most among rookies. Morris still loves how it all worked out.

"So, getting X (Watts) in the third and James Pearce with that first-rounder? Sign me up," Morris said.

McVay brushed it off this week, saying any effect on that 2026 pick "doesn't change how we approach this game at all."

Nacua's Taking Over, Stafford Stays Steady

McVay's Rams have long funneled their passing attack through one main guy, and Nacua's cranking it up to levels we haven't seen since Cooper Kupp's monster triple-crown year in 2021.

Nacua's pulling in 8.14 catches on 10.36 targets per game. Over the last three games? 28 grabs, 573 yards, and four scores.

He's been even bigger since Davante Adams tweaked his hamstring against Detroit on Dec. 14.

"Certain games give you more chances than others," Stafford said. "We've had a bunch of plays and snaps lately, so just more shots at it by volume. We connected on some big ones, but it's the same stuff he's always doing."

Injury Updates and Prep Vibes

Morris gave a quick update on Penix—he's rehabbing at the team's practice spot after surgery for a partially torn ACL in his left knee.

Timeline? "Nothing I really wanna share, to be honest," Morris said. "But as far as we know, everything's on schedule right now."

Robinson talked about scheming against his old crew: "It feels different prepping for the Rams just 'cause I know everybody over there."

"It's a cool shot," he added. "We're up against maybe the best team in football. Our guys get to go all out on Monday night vs. a great opponent, that's an awesome challenge."

The Rams had to switch things up this week too. Heavy rain and wild winds hit Southern California, so they ditched their San Fernando Valley spot to practice at SoFi Stadium. Wednesday meant a trek down the infamous 405 freeway past LAX during holiday rush hour.

"Not too bad heading down," Stafford laughed. "Bus made it in 45, 50 minutes, we'll take that win."

Los Angeles Rams @ Atlanta Falcons (Rams -7.5)

In a Week 17 matchup with massive playoff implications, the Los Angeles Rams (11–4) head to Atlanta to face the Falcons (6–9) on Monday Night Football. While the Rams are coming off a heart-wrenching 38–37 overtime loss to Seattle that dropped them to the No. 6 seed, they remain one of the NFL's most dangerous teams and are current 7.5-point road favorites.

The Rams' offense is performing at a historic level, led by MVP frontrunner Matthew Stafford, who just torched the Seahawks for 457 yards and three touchdowns. Even more impressive was the performance of Puka Nacua, who racked up 225 receiving yards in that same contest. While there was initial concern regarding Davante Adams and a lingering hamstring issue, recent reports suggest he has made significant progress and is highly likely to suit up, providing Stafford with his full complement of elite weapons against a mediocre Falcons secondary.

Atlanta has shown some life recently with back-to-back wins, but they have already been eliminated from postseason contention. Despite the steady play of Kirk Cousins and a standout season from Bijan Robinson, who recently eclipsed 2,000 yards from scrimmage, the Falcons struggle to maintain consistency. They average just 4.7 yards per play and own a disappointing 2–4 record at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Facing a Rams defense that is holding opponents to under 20 points per game and is desperate for a win to stay in the hunt for the NFC West title, the Falcons are severely outmatched.

The Rams have been a goldmine for bettors this season, boasting a league-best 11–4 record against the spread (ATS). They are also 8–2 ATS in their last 10 games and have a habit of winning big after a loss, with bounce-back margins of 7, 14, and 28 points earlier this year. With the No. 1 seed still mathematically in reach and a clear talent gap on both sides of the ball, expect Sean McVay to keep his foot on the gas for all four quarters. Lay the points with Los Angeles.

Finding the edge in high-stakes divisional races requires more than just looking at the standings; it requires a deep dive into matchup efficiency and motivational factors that the public often overlooks. Bankroll U provides that essential layer of intelligence, offering sophisticated analysis and expert picks from our playmakers to help you capitalize online movements and injury news. Whether you're tracking Davante Adams' status or analyzing the Rams' road dominance, our platform ensures you're betting with the sharpest data available. Master your strategy and build your legacy with Bankroll U.

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