The Portland Trail Blazers, sitting at 14-19 on the season, are heading into Oklahoma City to face off against the red-hot Thunder, who boast a stellar 28-5 record. Portland will lean heavily on Deni Avdija, who's been pouring in 25.6 points per game, good enough for 15th in the NBA.
But standing in their way is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder's scoring machine averaging 32.2 points (second in the league). This Wednesday matchup is shaping up to be a test of whether Portland can pull off an upset.
The Thunder have been solid lately, going 5-5 against the spread and 6-4 straight up in their last 10 games. Overall this season, they've covered the spread in 17 of their 33 games. They've also pushed the pace, hitting the over in 54.5% of their games with a point total, that's 18 times out of 33.
Oklahoma City averages 122.1 points per game, which is just 2.0 more than the 120.1 points the Trail Blazers give up to opponents. When the Thunder score over 120.1 points, they're basically unbeatable: 14-6 against the spread and a perfect 20-0 overall.
Shooting could tell the story here. The Thunder are knocking down 49.4% of their field goal attempts this year, edging out the 47.7% that Portland's opponents have managed. That's a 1.7% advantage that adds up over 48 minutes.
Home cooking seems to suit Oklahoma City even more. They've covered the spread 10 times in 18 home games, compared to seven covers in 15 road games. At Paycom Center, they've gone over the total in 55.6% of their games (10 of 18). On the road, it's a similar story at 53.3% (eight of 15).
However, the Thunder have won a higher percentage of their games at home (.889) compared to away games (.800).
On the other hand, the Portland Trail Blazers, currently positioned 10th in the standings, have had a more challenging season with a win percentage of 42%.
The Trail Blazers have managed to secure 14 wins out of their 33 games, averaging 116.82 points scored and conceding 120.12 points per game.
The New Year is kicking off with a high-octane showdown as the Portland Trail Blazers (14-19) head into the loud city to face the Oklahoma City Thunder (28-5). The Thunder are the undisputed juggernaut of the association right now, sitting atop the West and operating a masterclass in modern basketball. While OKC enters as the heavy favorite, this game has "track meet" written all over it, and I am locking in the Over 230.5.
Oklahoma City’s offensive identity is built on rapid-fire ball movement and a relentless "paint-to-great" mentality. Coming off a massive 140-point performance against Atlanta, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing at an MVP level, averaging 32.2 PPG. The floor-spacing of Chet Holmgren, who is averaging 24 points and 10 rebounds over his last ten outings, has pushed OKC’s offensive rating to the top of the league. The Thunder currently rank 2nd in the NBA in scoring at 122.1 PPG, and they have hit the over in 52.9% of their home games this season.
Don’t let the underdog status fool you, the Blazers are a different beast this season. Portland has fully embraced a hyper-aggressive, high-pace philosophy under a faster offensive scheme. Deni Avdija has emerged as a legitimate All-Star candidate, averaging 25.6 PPG, while Shaedon Sharpe has been on a tear, averaging over 24 points since entering the starting lineup in mid-December. With the towering presence of rookie Donovan Clingan (10.6 RPG) providing second-chance opportunities, the Blazers have the firepower to trade buckets with anyone.
While 230.5 might look like a high mountain to climb, these two squads live for the fast break. Portland is surrendering 120.1 PPG (24th in the NBA) but scoring 116.8 PPG of their own, making them an "over" bettor's dream. Expect a scoreboard clinic to ring in 2026.
Capitalizing on high-total games like this requires a pulse on the league's fastest-rising stars and evolving offensive schemes. While the public often focuses on the spread, the real value in a matchup like Portland vs. OKC lies in recognizing when two high-pace systems are destined to clash. Bankroll U gives you the inside track on these trends, providing the deep-data analysis and expert picks from our playmakers to help you identify the "track meets" before the opening tip. From SGA's historic scoring streak to Deni Avdija's breakout season, stay ahead of the game with Bankroll U.
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