The NFL playoffs heat up this Monday night in Pittsburgh's Steel City. The Houston Texans (12-5) hit the road to face the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) in a Wild Card clash that closes out the weekend. Both teams fought hard to get here, but only one advanced. Expect a gritty battle between a hot Texans defense and a Steelers squad desperate to end a painful playoff drought.
This game pits youth against experience. The Texans, led by rookie sensation C.J. Stroud, turned their season around dramatically. Pittsburgh, winners of the tough AFC North, relies on veteran Aaron Rodgers to spark a turnaround. Let's break it down step by step.
The Texans started rough, dropping their first three games to go 0-3. But they bounced back strong, winning their final nine games to finish 12-5 and snag a playoff spot. Houston joins a rare club as just the seventh team in NFL history to reach the postseason after an 0-3 start. Past teams include the 2018 Texans, 1998 Bills, 1995 Lions, 1992 Chargers, 1982 Buccaneers, and 1981 Jets.
Of those six earlier teams, only the 1992 Chargers won a playoff game. Houston hopes to beat those odds. Their late surge shows resilience, and they're playing their best football now.
Pittsburgh sits at 10-7 after clinching the AFC North. The Steelers won four of their last five regular-season games, including a thrilling 26-24 victory over Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens in Week 18. That win locked in their playoff berth and division title. Now, they host at home, where the crowd will roar.
Pittsburgh enters with huge pressure. They're the AFC North champs, but they carry a six-game losing streak in the playoffs, the longest active skid in NFL postseason history. The last four losses came by double digits, tying the record for the worst run ever.
Head coach Mike Tomlin faces a defining moment. A loss Monday would tie him with Cincinnati's Marvin Lewis for the longest playoff losing streak by any NFL head coach. Tomlin's teams have reached the playoffs often, but winning one has been elusive lately. This home game is their shot to snap it.
Aaron Rodgers leads the Steelers. The future Hall of Famer returns to the playoffs for the first time since a 2021 Divisional Round loss at Lambeau Field to San Francisco. Pittsburgh won big down the stretch with him under center, and they're thrilled to have wide receiver DK Metcalf back. Metcalf missed the final two regular-season weeks after a suspension for an altercation with a fan.
Metcalf is key for Rodgers, who boasts 5,894 career playoff yards (fourth all-time) and 45 touchdowns (third all-time). With Metcalf healthy, Rodgers could climb those leaderboards. Expect him to target Metcalf early against Houston's stout secondary.
C.J. Stroud powers the Texans. The young QB has Houston dreaming big. A playoff win here would put Stroud in elite company: only Russell Wilson (2012-14), Joe Flacco (2008-10), and Otto Graham (1946-48) have won postseason games in each of their first three NFL seasons. Stroud's poise has fueled Houston's nine-game win streak.
But he'll face Pittsburgh's tough defense. Stroud must protect the ball and lean on his run game to set up play-action passes.
This matchup pits the AFC’s hottest team, a Texans squad that has won nine straight games to close the year, against a Pittsburgh team that snatched the AFC North title in a thrilling Week 18 victory over Baltimore.
The Steelers enter as 3.5-point home underdogs, a role Mike Tomlin has famously thrived in throughout his 19-year tenure. The narrative centers on Aaron Rodgers, who has found a second wind in Pittsburgh. Despite being without star receiver DK Metcalf last week, Rodgers orchestrated a 390-yard offensive masterclass to clinch the division. With Metcalf returning from suspension this week, the Steelers' offense gains a vertical threat that could challenge a Houston secondary that, while disciplined, will be tested by Rodgers' legendary pre-snap adjustments.
However, the Houston Texans arrive with a defensive resume that is currently the gold standard of the AFC. Ranked No. 1 in defensive EPA per pass, DeMeco Ryans’ unit thrives on relentless pressure and "sticky" coverage. While C.J. Stroud has faced criticism for his outdoor splits, he has been exceptionally safe with the football, ranking 16th-lowest in interceptions. For Houston to cover the three points, they’ll need Stroud to manage the sub-freezing conditions at Acrisure Stadium and lean on a defense that has held elite offenses like the Chiefs and Bills in check during their winning streak.
Pittsburgh’s home-field advantage is a significant factor, especially in January. The Steelers' defense, led by T.J. Watt ranks 8th in opponent points per game allowed this season and has a knack for producing turnovers in high-leverage moments. In a game with a low over/under (38.5), every possession is magnified. If Pittsburgh can disrupt Stroud’s rhythm early and force him into the "outdoor cat" struggles seen in his road splits, Rodgers' veteran poise should be enough to keep this game within a field goal or win it outright.
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