Two teams on fire are about to collide in the NFL divisional round. The Houston Texans(13-5), sitting as the fifth seed, take on the second-seeded New England Patriots(15-3) this Sunday. Houston just steamrolled the fourth-seeded Pittsburgh Steelers 30-6 on Monday night. Meanwhile, New England handled the seventh-seeded Los Angeles Chargers in their wild-card win on Sunday.
The Texans finished the regular season at 12-5, second in the AFC South, and they've been solid on the road with a 6-3 record. The Patriots went 14-3, claiming the AFC East crown, and they're tough at home, going 7-3 at Gillette Stadium this 2025-26 season. One big note for Houston: star wide receiver Nico Collins is out with a concussion.
Kickoff is at 3 p.m. ET from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
New England's got this MVP-candidate quarterback in his second year, Drake Maye, who's been carrying them. Against the Chargers, he went 17 of 29 for 268 yards, with one touchdown pass and one pick. Over the 17 regular-season games, Maye was lights-out, completing 72% of his throws for 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns, just eight interceptions, and a passer rating of 113.5. Oh, and he ran the ball 103 times for 450 yards at 4.4 yards per carry, scoring four rushing TDs too.
Maye's go-to guy is wideout Stefon Diggs, who led the team with 85 catches for 1,013 yards, that's 11.9 per reception, and four scores in 17 games. Diggs had 17 plays of 20 yards or more, with a longest of 34, plus 354 yards after the catch and 51 first downs. Remember that 23-20 road win at Buffalo on October 5? He hauled in a season-best 10 balls for 146 yards.
The Patriots boast the NFL's sixth-ranked rushing attack at 128.9 yards per game, which could wear down Houston's front seven in a low-scoring grind. Controlling the line of scrimmage, bolstered by rookie LT Will Campbell, lets them protect Maye and dictate tempo.
Houston runs through their third-year QB, C.J. Stroud, who's got that veteran poise already. In 14 regular-season starts, he hit 64.5% of his passes for 3,041 yards, 19 TDs, eight picks, and a 92.9 rating. Stroud also scrambled 48 times for 209 yards and one rushing score. In that wild-card domination over the Steelers, he was sharp, 21 of 32 for 250 yards, a touchdown, and one interception.
One of his favorite targets is tight end Dalton Schultz, the eighth-year pro who's been reliable. He snagged 82 passes for 777 yards (9.5 average) and three TDs across 17 games. Back on December 14, he had eight catches for 76 yards and a score in a 40-20 blowout of Arizona. And don't forget November 9, when he grabbed seven for 53 yards and another touchdown in a 36-29 win over Jacksonville.
Houston's front seven pressures without blitzing, dominating the line to disrupt Drake Maye, much like their wild-card shutdown of Pittsburgh (30-6 win). This zone-heavy D ranks high in pass rush efficiency and could neutralize New England's 6th-ranked rush (128.9 ypg).
While the Patriots are the No. 2 seed and enter as 3-point home favorites, the Texans are riding a massive wave of momentum following a 10th consecutive win and a defensive clinic in the Wild Card round.
Houston’s identity is anchored by the league's No. 1 ranked defense (total yards allowed). Last Monday, they completely smothered the Steelers in a 30–6 victory, holding Pittsburgh to just 175 total yards. Will Anderson Jr. and the Houston front seven are a nightmare for any offensive line, which poses a significant challenge for Drake Maye. Although Maye has played at an MVP level this season, he faced this Houston unit in his first career start back in 2024, a game New England lost 41–21 after he was sacked four times and turned the ball over thrice.
The Texans' defense isn't just about stopping the run; they rank 2nd in defensive DVOA and have been lethal in creating turnovers, including two defensive touchdowns last week. On the other side of the ball, C.J. Stroud has been surgical in road environments, throwing for over 240 yards in nearly all of his away games since November. While he did fumble against the Steelers, his ability to find Christian Kirk (who had 144 yards last week) against a Patriots secondary that ranks 23rd in defensive DVOA is the key matchup advantage for Houston.
The weather at Gillette Stadium could be the great equalizer. Forecasts suggest a 55% chance of light snow with temperatures around 3°C. While some teams like Houston historically struggle in freezing outdoor playoffs (a 2–15 record), the Texans just proved they can handle the chill after dominating in Pittsburgh’s freezing rain. If Stroud protects the football, Houston has a legitimate chance to win this outright.
Finding the winning edge in the Divisional Round requires a deep dive into defensive efficiency and quarterback performance under pressure. Bankroll U is your premier resource for these high-stakes matchups, providing the sharp analysis and expert picks from our playmakers to help you identify when a 3-point underdog actually holds the schematic advantage. Whether you're tracking C.J. Stroud's outdoor splits or the impact of the New England snow forecast, our platform ensures you have the elite intel needed to win. Build your bankroll and secure your legacy with Bankroll U.
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