The Rams finished the regular season at 13-5 and earned the No. 5 seed. They barely beat the Carolina Panthers 34-31 in the wild-card round, thanks to a late 19-yard touchdown pass from Stafford to Colby Parkinson with 38 seconds left.
The Bears went 11-6, winning their first NFC North title since 2018 as the No. 2 seed. They trailed the Green Bay Packers 27-3 at halftime in their wild-card game but scored 25 points in the fourth quarter to win 31-27, their first playoff victory since 2010.
The Rams have struggled badly in Chicago, winning just 14 of 37 regular-season games there (14-31-2). Their last four trips to the city ended in losses, including a 24-18 defeat last season where Stafford did not throw a touchdown pass.
In the playoffs, these teams met once before in the 1985 NFC Championship Game at Soldier Field. The Bears dominated with a 24-0 win amid snow, highlighted by Jim McMahon's 16-yard rushing touchdown, a Kevin Butler field goal, a 22-yard pass to Willie Gault, and Wilber Marshall's 52-yard fumble return for a score.
Their most recent regular-season game was Week 4 of 2024, a 24-18 Bears win at home. The Bears led 10-6 at halftime with a Roshon Johnson touchdown and Cairo Santos field goal; Caleb Williams hit DJ Moore for a 9-yard score in the third, D'Andre Swift ran 36 yards for another, and Jaquon Brisker intercepted Stafford late to seal it.
Matthew Stafford led the NFL with 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns this season. He has thrown for 300 yards in four straight road playoff games and could set records with more scoring passes; his career record vs. the Bears is 12-10.
Caleb Williams shone in the Bears' comeback vs. Green Bay, passing for 361 yards and two touchdowns despite early picks. He has led seven fourth-quarter comebacks this year and connected with DJ Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus for key scores.
Puka Nacua of the Rams scored in nine regular-season games, including two last week vs. Carolina (one receiving, one rushing). He is a prime all-time touchdown bet against a Bears defense that allowed four Packers receivers to score.
This NFC Divisional Round clash sets up the classic “Experience vs. Momentum” narrative, but unlike most road favorites, the Rams arrive with a playoff-tested core built for this environment. With Matthew Stafford healthy and Sean McVay steering a veteran roster, I'm backing Los Angeles as 3.5-point favorites even in the cold.
The Rams are coming off a 34–31 Wild Card win over Carolina that showcased both their explosiveness and composure. Matthew Stafford briefly dealt with a sprained index finger in that game but still threw for 304 yards and three touchdowns, including a clutch game-winner to Colby Parkinson. He practiced fully this week and declared himself “good to go.” The weather will be harsh, projected 18°F with wind chills dipping into the single digits and potential snow, but Stafford’s Detroit background gives him real experience in cold-weather playoff football.
Chicago has become a great story under first-year head coach Ben Johnson and rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, but this matchup introduces elements they haven’t yet mastered: defensive complexity and postseason pacing. Williams shredded Green Bay with a franchise-record 361 passing yards in his playoff debut, but facing Chris Shula’s varied pressure packages, which allowed a touchdown on 46.2% of opponent red zone trips, ranking 3rd in the NFL. If 30 mph gusts shorten the passing game, Los Angeles gains the edge with the league’s most efficient intermediate timing attack featuring Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and Kyren Williams.
Historically, McVay’s teams have delivered in this exact spot, he is 20–16 ATS as a road favorite of seven points or fewer, and his game-planning consistently suppresses volatility. This is critical against a Chicago defense that thrives on high-leverage stops. If this turns into a cold-weather slugfest, the Rams’ experience in red-zone sequencing and clock control becomes the separator. Expect a physical, possession-driven battle where Los Angeles’ veteran poise wears down the Bears and justifies the -3.5 spread.
Navigating the Divisional Round requires a deep understanding of how playoff experience balances against raw momentum and hostile environments. Bankroll U is the essential resource for bettors who want to look past the marquee names and analyze the impact of situational factors like Stafford's finger and the Soldier Field wind chill. Our platform provides the data-driven insights and expert picks from our playmakers to help you identify when a veteran squad like the Rams is poised to handle the pressure. Take your postseason strategy to the next level with Bankroll U.
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