The AFC Championship game features the New England Patriots against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday, January 25, 2026, at 3 p.m. ET. What was set to be a clash of two 14-3 powerhouses has changed due to Broncos quarterback Bo Nix suffering a season-ending broken ankle in overtime during their divisional win over the Buffalo Bills. Backup Jarrett Stidham steps in for his first meaningful start since 2023, facing a surging Patriots team led by MVP candidate Drake Maye.
Both teams finished the regular season strong, with the Patriots turning around from 4-13 records in the prior two years to 14-3 under first-year coach Mike Vrabel, now 16-3 including playoffs. The Broncos, also 14-3 in the regular season and 15-3 overall, led the NFL with 68-71 sacks and a top pressure rate but now face a tough test without Nix. This marks the sixth playoff meeting between the franchises, with Denver holding a 4-1 edge, including AFC title wins over New England in 2013 (26-16) and 2015 (20-18) led by Peyton Manning against Tom Brady; no regular-season clash since 2023.
New England has dominated defensively in the playoffs, forcing six turnovers from quarterbacks like Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud, while Maye eyes a Super Bowl start as the second-youngest QB ever, behind only Dan Marino. Denver's path relied on their ferocious defense and Nix until the injury, making this a historic underdog story for Stidham, the first QB since Joe Webb in 2012 to debut in playoffs without regular-season passes.
Bo Nix is out for the season with a broken ankle from the Bills game, thrusting Stidham, drafted by New England in 2019, into action; he's 1-3 as a starter career-wise with limited recent reps. The Broncos opened the practice window for running back J.K. Dobbins, sidelined since November 6 with a foot injury; his return could boost a run game averaging under league norms without him, where he posted 77.2 yards per game pre-injury. The Patriots are mostly healthy, but cornerback Carlton Davis III enters concussion protocol.
Stidham's lack of recent action heightens pressure on Denver's line, which allowed just 23 sacks in the regular season (fewest in NFL), and coach Sean Payton's game plan to lean on quick throws and runs. New England's left tackle Will Campbell has struggled in the playoffs, allowing three sacks versus six all regular season, facing Denver's Nik Bonitto (19.1% pressure rate).
Patriots: Marcus Jones and Drake Maye
Marcus Jones shines as a slot corner with game-changing skills, including a pick-six against the Texans; he's the NFL's best punt returner at 14.3 yards average and could see trick-play snaps after a 48-yard TD as a rookie. His role grows if Davis sits, bolstering a defense with interior stars like Milton Williams and Christian Barmore, predicted to combine for 4+ sacks on Stidham.
Drake Maye leads MVP voting with 4,394 passing yards (8th NFL), 31 TDs (3rd), 8 INTs, 8.9 yards/attempt (1st), and 113.5 passer rating (2nd), plus 14 wins as one of the youngest ever. However, he's fumbled six times (three lost) and thrown two picks in the playoffs, needing clean play against Denver's pass rush.
Broncos: Pat Surtain II and Defense
Pat Surtain II, reigning Defensive Player of the Year, anchors a shutdown secondary that must force turnovers without an alpha receiver to shadow New England. The unit's pressure, including three sacks on Josh Allen last week, remains key, alongside possible Dobbins aid and Stidham managing quick decisions.
In a legacy-defining AFC Championship clash, the New England Patriots (16–3) travel to Mile High to face the Denver Broncos (15–3) this Sunday. While Denver earned the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage, the narrative shifted dramatically when rookie star Bo Nix suffered a season-ending fractured ankle in the final moments of their Divisional Round win over Buffalo.
The Patriots enter as 4.5-point favorites, a number that reflects the massive impact of Nix’s absence. Denver now turns to veteran backup Jarrett Stidham, who faces the ultimate "full circle" moment starting against the team that drafted him in 2019. While Sean Payton has expressed confidence in Stidham’s readiness, the Broncos' offense must navigate a New England defense that has been historic this postseason, allowing just one offensive touchdown across two playoff games while holding opponents to a staggering 0.34 EPA per play.
New England's resurgence under first-year head coach Mike Vrabel and sophomore QB Drake Maye has been the story of the season. Maye has been surgical, and while his completion percentage dipped in the divisional round sleet, he remains the more reliable orchestrator against a Denver defense that finished the year with a league-high 68 sacks. The Patriots' offensive line, led by Will Campbell, will have its hands full, but Denver is also fighting the injury bug on the perimeter, receivers Pat Bryant (concussion) and Troy Franklin (hamstring) were both limited in practice early this week.
Historically, Denver has been a house of horrors for the Patriots, who are 0–4 all-time in postseason games at Mile High. However, with Denver missing its dynamic playmaker in Nix and facing a Patriots run stop that allowed just 2.2 yards per carry last week, the path to Super Bowl LX leans toward the visitors. Expect a low-scoring, defensive grind where New England’s turnover discipline and Marcus Jones' playmaking ability eventually break the Broncos' resistance.
Deciphering a Conference Championship "backup QB" script requires a deep dive into defensive DVOA and red-zone conversion rates. Bankroll U is the essential resource for bettors who want to stay ahead of the curve, providing the sharp analysis and expert picks from our playmakers to help you understand if a 4.5-point spread truly accounts for the Nix-to-Stidham drop-off. Whether you're tracking Drake Maye’s rise or Denver's historic home-field advantage, our platform gives you the intelligence to bet with confidence. Build your bankroll and secure your legacy with Bankroll U.
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