The NFC South is up for grabs when the Buccaneers (7-9) host the Panthers (8-8) this Saturday in Tampa. Before the Falcons pulled off that win against the Rams on Monday Night, this was a straight-up do-or-die: win and you're in. The winner grabs the division title, and the loser's season ends right there. A Panthers victory locks up the NFC South and sends them to the playoffs. But Atlanta's surprise win throws a curveball, giving Carolina a safety net if they drop this one. If the Falcons beat the Saints on Sunday, the Panthers still snag the division even with a loss to the Bucs on Saturday.

Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers looked like they owned the NFC South halfway through the year, but things have gone south lately. They've dropped two straight, including that Week 16 heartbreaker to these same Panthers, and five of their last seven overall. Sure, Tampa's dealt with a ton of injuries to key guys. And yeah, Mayfield's tough as nails, but he definitely seems to be fighting through some shoulder trouble. At this point, their shot at a fifth straight division crown is hanging by a thread.

Over on the other side, Bryce Young and the Panthers have that hot streak vibe going into this one, even if they've been trading wins and losses over the past ten weeks. The third-year QB sparked Carolina to that Week 16 upset over Tampa, tossing for 191 yards and two scores. Young's not lighting it up every week, but he's stepped up big when it counts, leading game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime in 12 of his 14 NFL victories.

Game Details

Date: Saturday, January 3, 2026  

Time: 4:30PM EST  

Site: Raymond James Stadium  

City: Tampa, Florida  

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Panthers +2.5, Under 43.5)

The final week of the 2025 regular season brings us a de facto NFC South championship game at Raymond James Stadium. While both the Carolina Panthers (8-8) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9) have faced a rollercoaster second half of the season, the scenario for Saturday afternoon is high-stakes: the winner likely takes the division crown and a home playoff game.

Tampa Bay enters as a 2.5-point home favorite, but they are currently in a free fall, having lost seven of their last eight games. Despite a healthy roster featuring Mike Evans, Bucky Irving, and a returning Tristan Wirfs, the Buccaneers haven't covered a spread since Week 10. Baker Mayfield has struggled with consistency during this stretch, completing 62.8% of his passes for 3,490 yards with 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. The Buccaneers’ defense has been the primary culprit for their collapse, ranking near the bottom of the league in yards per play allowed (5.73) and red-zone touchdown percentage (71.1%).

The Panthers, led by defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, have undergone a defensive transformation. They currently rank 15th in total yards allowed, a massive improvement from 2024. Cornerback Jaycee Horn has been a ball hawk with five interceptions, and the unit held Tampa Bay to just 20 points in their Week 16 victory. On offense, Bryce Young is showing the poise Carolina fans have waited for, totaling 2,745 passing yards and 21 touchdowns through 16 games. While his yardage totals aren't staggering, his ability to manage the game and avoid critical turnovers has made Carolina a dangerous underdog.

Given that these two teams combined for just 43 points two weeks ago and both are leaning heavily on their run games, Carolina ranks 11th in the league with 122.4 rushing yards per game, this matchup has all the making of a low-scoring, physical divisional battle. Carolina is 8-5 against the spread as an underdog this season, while Tampa Bay is a dismal 2-7 ATS when favored.

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