The LSU Tigers are taking on the Houston Cougars in the Texas Bowl. It's set for December 27 at NRG Stadium in the heart of the Lone Star State. LSU, sitting at 7-5 overall and 3-5 in the SEC, is hitting the road for this one. They've made the Texas Bowl their spot for the second year running, and believe it or not, it's the program's fifth time playing there since 2015. That's some history right there.

Both teams came off close battles that showed their grit. Houston pulled off a solid 31-24 win over the Baylor Bears in their last game. Their quarterback, Conner Weigman, was on fire, throwing for 201 yards on 21 of 31 passes, good for 67.7% completion. He tossed one touchdown but also had one pick. The guy didn't stop there; he ran the ball 22 times for 121 yards and two rushing scores. Talk about a dual-threat nightmare. DJ Butler chipped in on the ground with 10 carries for 53 yards, averaging 5.3 yards a pop, and he even snagged a reception for 12 yards. Then there's Amare Thomas, who hauled in nine catches for 97 yards, an impressive 10.8 yards per grab, and punched in one touchdown. Houston's offense looked balanced and dangerous.

LSU, on the other hand, fell short in a tight 17-13 loss to the Oklahoma Sooners. Their QB, Michael Van Buren Jr., went 14-for-25 for 96 passing yards, hitting 56.0% of his throws with one touchdown and one interception. He scrambled for five carries and 33 yards too. Running back Caden Durham was efficient in limited action, rushing six times for 42 yards at 7.0 yards per carry, plus he caught one pass for a single yard. Trey'Dez Green made the most of his chances, grabbing one catch out of two targets for 30 yards through the air. It was a gritty effort from the Tigers, but they just couldn't seal the deal.

Why This Game Hinges on Houston's Star QB

LSU has to figure out Houston's Conner Weigman. This guy's been a game-changer all season, proving he's one of the most versatile quarterbacks out there. In 2025, he racked up a whopping 32 total touchdowns, 21 through the air and 11 on the ground. That's elite territory. In fact, Weigman's the only Power 4 quarterback this year to hit 20-plus passing TDs and 10-plus rushing scores. He made a real statement this fall, turning heads with his ability to beat you with his arm or his legs. LSU's defense better have a plan, because containing a player like that in a bowl game could make all the difference.

LSU brings their own firepower, though. They've got experience in these Texas Bowl spots, and with a 7-5 record, they're motivated to end the year on a high note after that SEC grind. Houston, fresh off knocking off Baylor, has momentum and a balanced attack led by Weigman. Expect a game full of big plays, scrambles, and maybe some turnovers that swing it.

LSU @ Houston - (Houston ML)

As we wrap up 2025 and head into the thick of bowl season, the national prestige of LSU might pull in casual fans, but the smart money is on the Houston Cougars. This isn't just a hunch; it’s a collision between a program finding its identity and one in total transition. LSU arrives at NRG Stadium as a "ship without a captain" following the departure of Brian Kelly. While Lane Kiffin has been hired for the 2026 season, he isn't on the sidelines yet, leaving interim coach Frank Wilson to lead a squad that feels like it is already looking toward next year. Conversely, Willie Fritz has his Cougars peaking at the right time with a 9-3 record, playing in their own backyard with a focused and stable culture.

LSU’s high-tempo scheme looks impressive on paper, but it will be missing its primary engine for this matchup. Starting quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, star linebacker Whit Weeks, and defensive anchor Harold Perkins have all opted out for the NFL Draft or are sidelined for injury recovery. Without the precision of Nussmeier, the Tigers' offensive rhythm will likely be disrupted by a stingy Houston defense led by Will James and his three interceptions. On the other side of the ball, the Houston offense defines efficiency. Quarterback Conner Weigman has been a revelation this season, accounting for 21 passing touchdowns and 11 rushing scores. Alongside Dean Connors and his 851 rushing yards, and big-play threat Amare Thomas who has racked up 906 yards and 10 touchdowns, the Cougars possess a versatile backfield capable of bullying an LSU front seven that has looked increasingly vulnerable.

LSU enters this contest having lost three of their last five games with a significantly depleted roster. Meanwhile, Houston has the momentum, the home crowd at NRG Stadium, and the superior overall balance. Expect the Cougars to exploit LSU’s defensive lapses and control the tempo from the opening kickoff to the final whistle. This is a classic case of a motivated home-state team facing an elite program in disarray. Sit tight, pour yourself a glass of wine, and enjoy the show as you lock in the Houston Moneyline.

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