Illinois State faces Montana State in a fresh matchup for the FCS championship. The game shifts to Nashville's FirstBank Stadium after years in Frisco, Texas, with kickoff at 6:30 p.m. CT on January 5. Neither team has claimed the title recently, Montana State not since 1984, and Illinois State never.
Montana State runs a balanced attack led by first-year coordinator Pete Sterbick and quarterback Justin Lamson, a transfer from Stanford who completes 72% of passes for 2,892 yards, 24 touchdowns, and just three picks. Lamson adds 704 rushing yards and 14 scores, while runners Julius Davis (1,100 yards, 8 TDs) and Adam Jones (1,047 yards, 15 TDs) power a top-four rushing game at 234.5 yards per game. Wideout Taco Dowler leads receivers with 69 catches for 914 yards and 6 TDs, backed by a strong line featuring top PFF run-blocking grades.
Illinois State's defense allows 25.1 points per game but ranks 10th against the run, with linebacker Tye Niekamp posting 155 tackles, 14.5 TFLs, and more. The Redbirds force turnovers at a top-six clip, which could challenge the Bobcats.
Illinois State averages 30.6 points with QB Tommy Rittenhouse throwing for 3,257 yards, 36 TDs, and 12 INTs to star receiver Daniel Sobkowicz (78 catches, 1,089 yards, 18 TDs). Running back Victor Dawson carries the load with 1,251 yards on 249 attempts, while the line excels in pass protection, ranking second on PFF. Wenkers Wright is questionable with injury, but Rittenhouse chips in 402 rushing yards and 7 TDs.
Montana State's defense is elite, yielding 18 points per game and ranking top-15 against the run. They force turnovers at No. 3 nationally (27 total), led by LB Cole Taylor (91 tackles) and a fierce front with DE Kenneth Eiden IV (8.5 sacks).
Both teams boast turnover machines, Illinois State at No. 6 (26 forced), Montana State at No. 3. Special teams feature solid punters (Illinois State's Hayden Futch at 43.6 yards average) and kickers, with Montana State's Myles Sansted reliable from 40+ yards. Injuries loom: Montana's Caden Dowler is questionable with a hand issue, and Illinois State's Wright status is iffy.
This matchup has all the ingredients of an instant classic as we head to FirstBank Stadium in Nashville on January 5th for the FCS National Championship. The No. 2 seed Montana State Bobcats (13-2) are on a mission to finally kick the door down. After heartbreaking losses in the 2021 and 2024 title games, Brent Vigen’s squad is playing with a "championship or bust" mentality. They come in hot on a six-game winning streak, headlined by a high-octane attack that just hung 48 points on rival Montana in the semifinals.
Across the field, you have the ultimate road warriors: the unseeded Illinois State Redbirds (12-4). They’ve just made history as the first team in FCS history to win four consecutive road playoff games, including a shocker at No. 1 North Dakota State, to reach the final. This senior-laden squad thrives as the underdog and specializes in the "takeaway" game, led by a secondary that has been opportunistic all postseason.
I am locking in the Over 56.5 because these two offenses are clicking at an elite level. Montana State’s attack, led by quarterback Justin Lamson and star running back Adam Jones, is averaging over 40 points per game during the playoffs. Lamson’s dual-threat ability and Jones’ explosive running make them nearly impossible to box in. Meanwhile, Illinois State’s Tommy Rittenhouse has been surgical under pressure, repeatedly finding star wideout Daniel Sobkowicz for big gains when it matters most.
The offensive depth on both sides is staggering, and with no major injuries to the primary starters, expect both units to be at full strength. While Illinois State’s defense is known for takeaways, those turnovers often lead to short fields and quick scores rather than defensive grinds. Montana State has already shown they can win shootouts, and with the "road warrior" Redbirds averaging over 30 points per game in their playoff run, this game is primed to soar past the total. Settle in and watch these two juggernauts trade blows in the Music City.
Capturing the value in a National Championship environment requires more than just looking at season averages; it requires an understanding of the momentum and roster depth that carry a team through a grueling playoff bracket. Bankroll U specializes in identifying these unique situational edges, providing the sharp analysis and expert picks from our playmakers to help you capitalize on historic runs like Illinois State’s. Whether you're tracking Tommy Rittenhouse's touchdown-to-interception ratio or the Bobcats' red-zone efficiency, our platform ensures you have the elite intel needed to win big. Don't just watch history, profit from it with Bankroll U.
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