The Kansas City Chiefs are facing a tough stretch to try and save their 2025 season, starting with a Sunday Night Football showdown against the Houston Texans.
The Chiefs slipped to 6-6 after a close 31-28 loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving. On the flip side, Houston’s riding high with a four-game winning streak after edging out the Indianapolis Colts 20-16 last Sunday, bringing their record to 7-5.
Kickoff is set for 7:20 p.m. Central at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, right in Kansas City.
With just five games left in the regular season, the Chiefs aren’t chasing top seed in the AFC anymore, something they’ve been used to over the past several seasons. Sitting at 6-6, they are third in the AFC West and actually 10th overall in the conference, two wins shy of the playoff spots.
And this Texans defense isn’t messing around. They have two of the league’s best sack artists, Danielle Hunter with 11 sacks and Will Anderson with 10.5 sacks, looming over a Kansas City offensive line that’s seen better days.
That’s the real worry here. The Chiefs’ offensive line is banged up. Left tackle Josh Simmons was placed on injured reserve after surgery on a broken and dislocated wrist. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor missed practice because of a triceps injury he picked up during the Cowboys game. Right guard Trey Smith, who missed last week with an ankle sprain, couldn’t practice either on Wednesday.
If those starters can’t suit up, the Chiefs might have to rely on three backup linemen, a tough task against one of the NFL’s nastiest defensive fronts. Houston leads the league in scoring defense, holding teams to just 16.5 points per game.
Coach Andy Reid said they’re still checking on Smith and Taylor, but if they’re out, backups Wanya Morris (LT), Mike Caliendo (RG), and Jaylon Moore (RT) would likely start.
Since 2019, the Chiefs have reached five Super Bowls and won three. A common factor in the two losses was Patrick Mahomes playing behind weak protection, and here we are again.
Mahomes knows it won’t be easy. He stressed that quick throws, committing to the run game, and hitting timely deep passes will be key.
“You’re going to have to utilize (the run game), utilize everything,” Mahomes said. “Not just my legs, you have to utilize everything you have to go out there and win. This is a really good football team that’s playing really good football right now and has a really good defense.”
Kareem Hunt has been the go-to running back lately, and Rashee Rice has proven to be one of the quickest receivers around. Those two might be the Chiefs’ best bets to break through Houston’s stout defense.
Even though Mahomes has thrown for over 3,000 yards and 22 touchdowns this season, this is the toughest spot his team’s been in at this point since he became the starter in 2018.
“We’re going to have to throw it all out there and find a way to win,” Mahomes said. “This will be a big game for us to showcase who we are and who we think we can be moving on the rest of the season.”
On the other side, Houston’s QB C.J. Stroud came back from concussion protocol last week and looked sharp, leading the Texans to that win over Indy with 276 passing yards.
Stroud’s got solid weapons too, including receivers Nico Collins and Jayden Higgins, plus tight end Dalton Schultz. They’ll put Kansas City’s defense to the test, which struggled against Dallas’ top receivers like CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
Coach Reid once told Mahomes that when things look bleak, he needs to become the “grim reaper.” Right now, the situation definitely feels grim.
Before the Chiefs’ past Super Bowl losses, many believed they could overcome big mismatches in the trenches. This game feels just like that, a battle where KC will need some Mahomes magic if they want to win.
But the Texans are hot, and their defense is top-notch. Expect Houston to keep rolling and notch a fifth straight win, while the Chiefs try to find answers on the fly.
I’m leaning heavily toward the Under 41.5 in this matchup. Both teams bring elite defenses into Arrowhead, and their recent trends scream low-scoring battle. Houston and Kansas City are both trending heavily toward lower-scoring contests lately, a clear reflection of their defensive quality which sees them holding opponents to stifling low point totals. With the total sitting at 41.5, the number feels inflated for these two units.
The Texans’ defense has been the biggest separator. They rank No. 1 in the NFL in opponent points (16.5) and total yards (265.7) allowed per game, while also sitting top-two in third-down stops. They’ve already shown they can frustrate Patrick Mahomes after holding Kansas City to just 212 total yards in last year’s Divisional Round. Add in freezing cold conditions in Arrowhead, with temperatures expected to be as low as -8°C (18°F) and a biting wind chill, and this doesn't set up well for sustained offensive execution.
Kansas City hasn’t been explosive either. Mahomes is getting sacked more than ever, his offensive line is banged up with multiple key injuries, and the Chiefs have struggled inside the red zone. Houston isn’t built for big scoring nights in the cold either, especially with C.J. Stroud facing Steve Spagnuolo’s pressure packages outdoors against a top-ten KC defense.
With both defenses surging, offenses struggling to find consistency, and the weather being a major factor, I’m expecting a defensive slugfest that easily stays under 41.5.
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