Chargers vs Patriots Wild Card Preview: Odds, Matchups & Pick
Chargers vs Patriots Wild Card preview with odds, weather, and key matchups as Justin Herbert faces Drake Maye and New England at Gillette Stadium.

The 2025 NFL playoffs heat up this Sunday night in Foxboro, Massachusetts. The New England Patriots will host the Los Angeles Chargers at Gillette Stadium. Kickoff is at 8:00 p.m. ET. The winner moves on to the divisional round. The loser goes home. This is a big AFC wild card game, and fans are excited for what should be a great battle.
Both teams had strong regular seasons. The Chargers finished 11-6. They earned the No. 7 seed in the AFC playoffs. This is their second straight year above .500 under coach Jim Harbaugh. The Patriots went 14-3. They won the AFC East title. New England is hosting a home playoff game for the first time since 2019, the days of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. What a turnaround for the Pats!
Team Breakdown: Chargers' Strengths and Challenges
The Chargers have faced some tough times with injuries on their offensive line. But they still put up good numbers on offense. They averaged 21.6 points per game this season. That's solid production despite the banged-up line.
Defense is where Los Angeles shines brightest. They allowed just 285.2 yards per game. That's the fifth-fewest in the entire NFL. They stop opponents cold, making life hard for quarterbacks and runners alike. Quarterback Justin Herbert will lead the charge. He'll need a big night to keep the offense rolling against New England's tough defense.
Key players to watch include wide receiver Ladd McConkey. He's been a reliable target for Herbert all year. Running back J.K. Dobbins was key earlier in the season, but he's now with the Broncos. The Chargers will lean on their depth to grind out yards on the ground.
Team Breakdown: Patriots' Epic Turnaround
New England flipped the script from last year's disaster. They went from bottom of the barrel to 14-3. Quarterback Drake Maye is an MVP candidate. He's been lights-out, leading the team with poise and big plays. Coach Mike Vrabel is a Coach of the Year favorite. His leadership got the Pats back on top.
Hosting at Gillette Stadium gives them a huge edge. The crowd will be roaring. Maye has the arm to make plays downfield. The defense steps up too, especially at home. This is the kind of stage where young stars like Maye can shine brightest.
The Pats' offense has balance. They run well and throw accurately. Defensively, they force turnovers and get after the quarterback. Sunday night under the lights will test if they can keep the magic going in the playoffs.
Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots (Patriots -3.5)
In a marquee AFC Wild Card matchup, the New England Patriots (14–3) host the Los Angeles Chargers (11–6) this Sunday night at Gillette Stadium. This game marks the first home playoff appearance for the Patriots since 2019 and pits two elite young quarterbacks against each other: the Chargers' Justin Herbert and the Patriots' breakout star, Drake Maye.
The Patriots enter the postseason as one of the hottest teams in the league, having secured the No. 2 seed under first-year head coach Mike Vrabel. Drake Maye has been nothing short of sensational in his second year, finishing the regular season with 4,394 passing yards and 31 touchdowns, solidifying himself as an MVP frontrunner. New England’s offense is humming, averaging 28.8 points per game, while their defense has remained a top-five unit, allowing just 18.8 points per contest. Their efficiency at home and ability to control the clock with a balanced attack make them a formidable 3.5-point favorite.
The Chargers, meanwhile, are looking to break a string of postseason frustrations. Justin Herbert is seeking his first career playoff win after an 11–6 campaign where he was pressured more than any other quarterback in the league. While the Chargers' defense is elite, ranking 5th in yards allowed and 9th in scoring, their offensive line has been decimated by injuries to star tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. This vulnerability is something the Patriots’ disciplined front will look to exploit, especially in the freezing Foxborough conditions where the temperature is expected to dip to -3°C.
Historically, the Patriots have dominated this postseason rivalry, winning three of their four previous playoff meetings. While the Chargers have been strong as road underdogs this season, the combination of New England's top-tier efficiency (8.2 yards per play in their finale) and the environmental advantage of Gillette Stadium in January points toward a Patriots cover. Expect a physical battle that highlights Maye’s accuracy and the Patriots' ability to finish drives in the red zone.
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