The San Antonio Spurs are set to host the Memphis Grizzlies in a Western Conference matchup on November 19, 2025, and on paper, it looks like two teams heading in very different directions. The Spurs are off to a strong start, sitting 5th in the West with a 67% win rate, winning 8 of their first 12 games and later improving to 9-4. Memphis, meanwhile, is stuck near the bottom at 12th, with just 4 wins in 14 games and a lot of questions hanging over them.

Spurs' Strong Home Form  

San Antonio has built a strong identity at home, and that’s a big part of why this game feels tilted in their favor. They’re 4-0 against division opponents, which tells you they show up when it’s a familiar rival on the other side. The Spurs are playing clean, efficient basketball, shooting 49.7% from the field this season, a touch higher than the 48.3% that Memphis usually gives up on defense.

They also love to run. San Antonio ranks sixth in the league with 18.2 fast-break points per game, and Devin Vassell is leading that charge with about 3.5 of those points coming from transition alone. When the Spurs get stops, they don’t waste time, they push the ball, get easy baskets, and put a lot of pressure on opponents who aren’t locked in defensively.

Why is Memphis Struggling?

Memphis coming into this one on a four-game losing streak pretty much sums up how their season’s gone so far: frustrating, inconsistent, and a little bit desperate. They’re 4-10 and 2-7 in games decided by 10 or more points, which tells you they’re not just losing, they’re getting blown out far too often.

There are a few layers to why they’re struggling:  

• The offense isn’t clicking the way it used to.
• Their defense hasn’t been good enough to bail them out when shots aren’t falling.
• Mentally, they look like a team that knows its margin for error is tiny.

Memphis averages 12.9 made threes per game, which doesn’t sound awful, but it’s still 1.3 fewer than the 14.2 threes the Spurs typically allow opponents to hit.  That gap matters because if you’re already struggling, you need something, like hot three-point shooting, to tilt a game in your favor, and the Grizzlies just haven’t been that kind of team so far.

Who’s Most Responsible for the Struggle?  

It’s never just one person when a team is 4-10, but there are some obvious pressure points.

Ja Morant is at the center of it all, simply because the entire Memphis offense is built around him. When he’s not fully healthy or not in rhythm, the whole attack looks disjointed. His shooting numbers this season have been rough, well below what you’d expect from a star guard, and that kills spacing when defenses don’t respect his jumper.

But it’s not just on Morant.

• The supporting cast hasn’t consistently stepped up when he’s off the floor or off his game.
• Jaren Jackson Jr. and others have had their moments, but the team hasn’t found a steady, night-in, night-out offensive identity.
• The coaching staff also has to own some of it, lineup choices, defensive schemes, and in-game adjustments haven’t been enough to stop the bleeding in these big-loss games.

So if you’re looking for “who’s responsible,” it’s a mix of Morant’s struggles, role players not fully delivering, and a staff still trying to figure out what works with this group right now.

The Key Dynamics: Offense and Defense  

On the basketball side, there are a few matchups and dynamics that really stand out.

For San Antonio:  

• Offensively, they’re putting up good numbers, scoring around 118.8 points per game as a team. One of their biggest strengths is efficient shooting, they’re hitting close to 50% from the field, which is really solid and makes them tough to keep up with. Victor Wembanyama leads the charge, averaging 26.2 points and grabbing 12.9 rebounds per game, showing he's a dominant force inside and on the glass. Stephon Castle is also a key playmaker, averaging 7.9 assists and contributing defensively with 1.8 steals per game.
• On the defensive end, the Spurs have been effective at limiting opponents’ scoring, holding teams to about 112 points per game. Their defense is aggressive enough to create turnovers and disrupt the other team's rhythm. The team averages around 27.2 assists per game, signaling good ball movement that helps them find the best shots while also playing solid defense to stop easy points.

For Memphis:  

• The Grizzlies' offense is one of the worst in the league in multiple key areas. The Grizzlies have the second-worst field goal percentage in the NBA at 43%, and they are also the third-worst three-point shooting team, shooting just 32.9% from three. The Grizzlies also average just 111.9 points per game, the fifth worst in the league.
• Defensively, the Grizzlies have also struggled. Currently possessing a 116.3 defensive rating, which is just the 20th best.

One specific area to watch is how Memphis handles San Antonio’s fast break and early offense. If the Grizzlies are sloppy with the ball or take bad shots, the Spurs will turn those mistakes into quick points the other way. That’s the kind of thing that can quietly decide a game by the third quarter.

On the flip side, if Memphis can slow the pace, keep the game more half-court, and actually hit enough threes to keep San Antonio honest, they give themselves a chance. But so far, that’s exactly the kind of consistency they’ve been missing.

Is There a Front Office Angle Here?  

Definitely.

For Memphis, the front office has to be feeling some heat.  This was a team that, not long ago, looked like one of the rising powers in the West, built around a young superstar and a strong defensive identity.  Now, they’re in a spot where:

• The roster doesn’t look deep enough when injuries hit or when Morant isn’t at his best.
• Some role players haven’t developed into the reliable second and third options the team hoped they’d be.

From San Antonio’s perspective, the front office has to be pretty satisfied with how this season has started. They’ve built a group that plays fast, moves the ball, and seems to understand its roles. There’s a nice balance between young talent and structure, and that’s showing up in both their record and their numbers.

So, Can the Spurs Keep It Going At Home?  

All signs point to yes.

The Spurs have the better record, the stronger form, the more efficient offense, and the comfort of playing at home, where they’ve already been perfect against division rivals. Memphis is coming in on a four-game skid, struggling in blowout games, and still trying to solve their offensive identity and mental toughness late in games.

Basketball is never guaranteed, Memphis still has talent, and a big night from Morant and Jackson could absolutely flip the script, but right now, San Antonio looks like the more stable, confident, and dangerous team.

If the Spurs keep pushing the pace, knocking down shots at their current clip, and using their home crowd energy, they have a very real chance to maintain that strong home record and hand the Grizzlies yet another frustrating loss.

Wilson Pick Focus: Memphis Grizzlies @ San Antonio Spurs (Spurs ML, U 232.5, -105)

The injuries on both sides shape this game, but the absence of Ja Morant for the Grizzlies is the far bigger blow.

Memphis simply can't find any offensive rhythm, having scored 100 or fewer in three of its last four games. Now, with Ja Morant out for a couple of weeks with a calf strain, their inability to generate consistent offense will be severely magnified.

I still trust the Spurs more here. They’ve looked sharper, they play with better structure, and they just showed against Sacramento that they can control a game even when short-handed, a win achieved despite both Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle being out.

I’m also leaning heavily toward the Under. Memphis sits at 5-9 to the Under on the season, including 2-4 on the road. San Antonio has gone Under in back-to-back games and has held seven of its thirteen opponents to 110 points or fewer. With both teams missing key creators and neither group operating smoothly on offense, this sets up as a grind-it-out game where possessions slow down and scoring dries up.

Given the matchup, the form, and the injuries, I’m leaning Spurs to take care of business at home in a low-scoring win that stays under the total. You can lock in the Spurs ML and the Under 232.5 now at Bankroll U!

Strong home stands can hide deeper trends, and spotting which ones truly matter is where real playmakers shine. At Bankroll U, we break down every matchup angle to turn home-court edges, and vulnerabilities, into winning insights.