This Saturday night, Cincinnati is set to host No. 11 BYU in what promises to be an exciting final home game of the season. The stakes are high for both teams as the Big 12 title and a spot in the College Football Playoff (CFP) hang in the balance.
BYU, with a 9-1 overall record and 6-1 in the Big 12, is pushing hard to secure their place in the Big 12 championship game in Dallas on December 6. A win here, combined with a Colorado victory over Arizona State and either Utah beating Kansas State or TCU winning against Houston, would lock that spot in for the Cougars.
On the flip side, Cincinnati has had a tougher ride lately. The Bearcats, currently 7-3 overall and 5-2 in the conference, come into the game on the back of two straight losses. They got hammered 45-14 by No. 12 Utah on November 1 and then were surprisingly knocked out of the Top 25 after losing 30-24 at home to Arizona last week. They had high hopes for making a run both in the Big 12 championship and the CFP, but those hopes have hit a rough patch.
In the Big 12 standings, BYU is just half a game behind Texas Tech and a game ahead of Cincinnati and a few others, including Houston, Arizona State, and Utah, all sitting at 5-2 in the conference. With their current No. 11 ranking in the CFP, the Cougars are right on the edge of qualifying for the 12-team playoff tournament.
Last week showed how the Cougars can bounce back after a loss. After their only defeat of the season at Texas Tech, they came roaring back to beat TCU by a strong 44-13 margin at home, boosting their chances for postseason success.
Freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier has been a huge part of BYU’s success. He threw for 296 yards and one touchdown in that big win over TCU, plus he ran for a touchdown himself. That marked his 10th rushing touchdown this season, tying a school record held by some notable names like Steve Young and Zach Wilson for the most rushing TDs by a quarterback in a single season.
Bachmeier has thrown for 2,177 yards and 13 touchdowns so far this year, while his 479 rushing yards rank third among Big 12 QBs. His 10 rushing touchdowns also tie him for second place across the whole conference.
BYU’s head coach Kalani Sitake said he was impressed with how the team responded after the Texas Tech loss. He felt a new urgency all week and said it was great to finally see everything click on all sides of the game. Delivering that level of play, especially in November when things really count, could build some serious momentum for the team.
Defensively, BYU is leading the Big 12 with 14 interceptions and ranks tied for fourth with 25 sacks, showing they’re strong on both sides of the ball.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s quarterback Brendan Sorsby is looking to shake off some rough recent games. Over the last two losses, he’s only completed 26 of 61 passes with two touchdowns and three interceptions, a big drop-off from the first eight games of the season, where he threw 20 TDs and just one pick.
This game is a big deal for Cincinnati too. BYU is the highest-ranked team to visit Nippert Stadium since No. 6 Houston did back in 2016. It’s also Cincinnati’s only home night game of the season, starting at 8 p.m. under the lights, which is something of a tradition for the Bearcats.
On senior night, head coach Scott Satter will be counting on his veteran leaders to help the team rebound. He told the players that true leadership really shows during tough times, not just when things are going well. He’s challenged his guys to step up and figure out where they need to improve to finish the season strong.
Both teams have a lot on the line here. For BYU, it’s about staying on track for that Big 12 title and a playoff berth. For Cincinnati, it’s about salvage and pride, trying to find some late-season momentum while sending their seniors off on a high note in their final home game. Fans can expect an intense, competitive night at Nippert Stadium.
I’m backing BYU in this spot because the Cougars match up cleanly across every phase of the game. Their physical run game remains the identity, and averaging 195 rushing yards per contest gives them a clear advantage against a Cincinnati defense that’s been leaking 158 yards per game on the ground and surrendered 224 rushing yards in their last two losses. With LJ Martin setting the tone and Bear Bachmeier operating efficiently off early-down success, BYU’s offense feels steadier and far more sustainable.
Defensively, the Cougars are built to disrupt what Cincinnati does best. They allow just 191.5 passing yards per game and have given up only eight passing touchdowns all season, which puts real pressure on Brendan Sorsby to make perfect throws. BYU’s third-down defense (31%), turnover production, and red-zone control are all trending in the right direction — and those situational edges matter in tight conference games.
The eye test matches the numbers. Cincinnati’s hot start came against a soft schedule, and the last two weeks exposed the gaps. They were bullied by Utah, outpaced by Arizona, and their defense has surrendered 30-plus in back-to-back losses. BYU is built in that Utah mold — big, physical, and comfortable winning at the line of scrimmage. As long as Martin keeps the ground game honest, Bachmeier won’t need to carry the offense.
Even historically, the matchup leans BYU, who have taken all three previous meetings and enter this one with more stability, more balance, and more to play for. I’m leaning on the more complete team here. Give me BYU to win, cover the number, and move closer to the Big 12 Championship game. Lock in BYU -2.5 at Bankroll U!