After taking a break last week, the Washington Commanders (3-8) are back in action and hosting the Denver Broncos (9-2) on Sunday Night Football at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland.
These two teams don’t meet often, they’ve only faced off 16 times, including playoffs. The overall record is perfectly even at 8 wins each, so whoever wins on Sunday night will take the lead in this rivalry.
The Commanders face a tough challenge to end their six-game losing streak against the Denver Broncos, who come into the matchup surging with a 9-2 record and a strong chance at the playoffs. The Broncos have shown resilience and consistent performance this season, while the Commanders have struggled with injuries and poor form.
The Washington Commanders are currently on a six-game losing streak, sitting at a 3-8 record for the season. Injuries and inconsistent play have significantly affected their performance, contributing to their tough season after a 12-5 finish last year. They will need to improve on both offense and defense at home against a formidable Broncos team to end their skid.
The Broncos, led by head coach Sean Payton, are off to their best start since their Super Bowl-winning 2015 season, currently holding a 9-2 record. They have demonstrated the ability to fight hard until the final whistle, sometimes pulling off comebacks and close wins. Their offense, guided by quarterback Bo Nix, aims for consistency as they approach this game after a bye week, determined to keep their winning streak alive.
Sunday Night Football will host the battle where the Broncos will look to continue their roll, while the Commanders try to leverage home-field advantage to break their losing streak. Expect an intense game with key players like Deebo Samuel for Washington and Bo Nix for Denver playing pivotal roles. The outcome will likely hinge on whether the Commanders can tighten their defense and capitalize on scoring opportunities against a disciplined Broncos squad.
While the Commanders have the motivation to end their losing streak, the Broncos’ current form and resilience make them strong favorites in this matchup. The Commanders’ success will depend heavily on overcoming injuries and raising their game significantly on both sides of the ball to challenge the surging Broncos effectively.
I’m leaning Denver -6.5 because this matchup tilts heavily toward the Broncos’ defense. Denver brings an elite unit into Sunday night, ranking fourth in defensive DVOA and allowing the third-fewest points per game. That’s a tough assignment for Marcus Mariota, who steps in again for the injured Jayden Daniels. Even with Mariota’s recent efficiency, I expect him to struggle against a defense that leads the league in pressure rate and sacks. Denver collapses pockets better than anyone, and Washington hasn’t handled sustained pressure well all season.
I’m sticking with the Broncos because both teams come in off a bye, yet Washington hasn’t shown signs of a breakthrough. They’ve stayed under 25 points in six straight losses, and the late-game meltdown against Miami reinforces the offensive inconsistency. The Commanders’ defense hasn’t offered much support either, 30th in EPA per play and giving up 27 points and 387 yards per game. They’ve surrendered 28 or more in four of their last five and gone 0-5 ATS in the process.
Denver isn’t flawless, but the formula keeps working. The win streak is real, even if the margins have been thin. The key is Bo Nix's stability: he's 7-1 SU against the NFC with a 14:3 TD:INT ratio in those games, and Denver is 4-1 in primetime with Nix under center. He should move the ball efficiently against a Commanders defense that has been battered all year.
While Denver hasn't been great as a large road favorite, the trend against Washington is too strong to ignore: the Commanders are 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games as home dogs of 6+ points. Denver’s defense should dictate terms, and the offense should do enough to pull away.
With both teams rested, the Broncos healthier, and the Commanders still searching for answers, I’m rolling with Denver -6.5. Find the best price on the Broncos cover right now at Bankroll U!