What a wild season it's been, and now we've got this holiday showdown on Christmas Day: the Denver Broncos heading into Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. The Chiefs are limping home after a brutal road loss to the Titans, falling 26-9 in Nashville. That drops them to their third straight defeat, and it's not just any slump, their quarterback nightmare just got worse.
Just a week after Patrick Mahomes went down with a torn ACL, they lost Gardner Minshew to another ACL tear. Now, they're turning to Chris Oladokun under center, and he couldn't get the job done against Tennessee on Sunday. The Chiefs' season feels like it's circling the drain at this point. With only two weeks left in the regular season, it wouldn't shock anyone if they start resting some of their banged-up stars to avoid bigger problems heading into the offseason.
On the flip side, Week 17 is do-or-die for Bo Nix and the Broncos. They stumbled in Week 16, giving up 34 points to the Jacksonville Jaguars in a tough loss. To lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC, Denver has to win out, no room for error. They also lost Pat Bryant and Dre Greenlaw to injuries in that game, which doesn't help. Can they shake it off on this short week and grab a massive victory?
Kansas City is without their top two quarterbacks, Mahomes and Minshew, both sidelined by those devastating knee injuries. Oladokun stepping in? It's a tough task against a Broncos defense that's been solid most of the year. The Chiefs' offense has looked lost without their star signal-callers, and that Titans game was just the latest proof.
Denver's got their own bumps and bruises, sure. Losing Bryant and Greenlaw hurts, especially after coughing up all those points to Jacksonville. But compared to KC's QB disaster, the Broncos are in way better shape. This feels like a golden chance for Denver to exploit a depleted rival.
Remember earlier this season? Denver already handed the Chiefs a loss, and that was with Mahomes playing. Makes you wonder what they'll do now without him. The Broncos have been up and down against the spread this year, going just 6-8-1 in 2025. Not elite, but they've shown they can beat good teams when it counts.
Kansas City, meanwhile, is in full meltdown. Three losses in a row, key players hurt, and a backup QB trying to steady the ship. They're at home on Christmas, which could spark some magic, but the vibes aren't great. Denver's fighting for that top seed, so expect them to come out hungry.
I don’t think there’s any mystery left with Kansas City at this point. Based on how this situation has unfolded, this season is effectively over for the Chiefs. One week after Patrick Mahomes suffered a season-ending torn ACL, the Chiefs’ hopes were dealt another devastating blow when backup Gardner Minshew also went down with a torn ACL against Tennessee. This leaves the Chiefs turning to career practice-squad quarterback Chris Oladokun for a Christmas night showdown against an angry Denver defense.
The Broncos, meanwhile, are coming off a rare stumble against Jacksonville, but the underlying numbers suggest they are still the powerhouse that rattled off an 11-game winning streak. Despite the loss, Bo Nix and the Denver offense maintained a significant yards-per-play advantage. Now sitting at 12–3 and fighting for the AFC’s top seed, Denver has every incentive to dismantle a shell-shocked rival. Their defense, coordinated by Vance Joseph, ranks 5th in points allowed and sits among the league’s top units in generating pressure, a nightmare scenario for a third-string quarterback making his first career start on a short week.
From a betting perspective, this is a "Broncos or nothing" spot. Kansas City’s offense is essentially non-functional, having averaged just 3.4 yards per carry recently while dealing with multiple offensive line injuries. If the Chiefs cannot sustain drives, their defense, which surrendered 400 yards to the Titans last week, will eventually break under the weight of repeated three-and-outs. Denver doesn't need to be explosive to cover; they just need to be professional, which has been their hallmark under Sean Payton this year.
The Total of 36.5 is low, but for good reason. Even with Mahomes, this offense was struggling; with Oladokun, it’s hard to see them reaching double digits. Three straight Chiefs games have stayed below this total, and with unseasonably warm but high wind speeds forecasted for Arrowhead, the deep passing game will be non-existent for both sides. Expect a one-sided, clock-draining performance where Denver controls the tempo and the defense does the rest.
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