The ACC championship game is all set for next Saturday night in Charlotte, and it’s shaping up to be quite the showdown. After a bunch of tiebreakers and drama, Virginia and Duke have clinched their spots to battle it out for the title.
Virginia wrapped up their regular season on a high note, beating their rivals Virginia Tech to finish with a strong 10-2 record overall and 7-1 in conference play. That win kept them at the top of the ACC standings. SMU had a chance to sneak into the title game too but lost a nail-biter to Cal, which opened up a messy five-way tie for second place between SMU, Miami, Pitt, Georgia Tech, and Duke, all with 6-2 conference records.
After all the tiebreakers went down, Duke came out on top to face Virginia in the final, even though their overall record is 7-5. Duke had some rough losses outside the conference against Illinois, Tulane, and UConn, but they played a tough ACC schedule, facing six of the top 11 teams. That plus some key wins helped them edge out the competition in the tie.
Interestingly, Miami, despite being the highest-ranked team in the ACC and putting on a solid 38-7 win over Pitt, didn’t make the championship. They finish the season at 10-2 overall and 6-2 in the ACC but will have to hope for a spot in the College Football Playoff as an at-large team since they’re not the conference champs.
While Miami waits and hopes for a committee nod, Virginia and Duke get to settle things on the field with a shot at making the College Football Playoff by winning the ACC crown. Let’s break down what’s going on with these two teams as they gear up for what promises to be a busy and exciting week.
Tony Elliott walked into the 2025 season under a lot of pressure after missing a bowl game in his first three seasons as head coach. Instead of shaking up the entire staff, the team hit the transfer portal hard, bringing in over two dozen players who made an immediate impact, including starting QB Chandler Morris.
Virginia kicked off the season with a bang, pulling off a home upset against undefeated and top-10 Florida State. But they faced challenges midseason, dealing with injuries and some close games. In fact, they went 4-2 in games decided by one score, including three straight wins by a combined total of just six points. Luckily, their recent games showed more control, they beat Duke by 17 points and then Virginia Tech by 20 to close out the regular season.
Morris is really the engine of Virginia’s offense, which is ranked third in the ACC both in total yards (438.0 per game) and points scored (33.7 per game). He’s a seasoned QB who can extend plays with his legs and throw deep when it counts. On defense, Virginia has been solid overall and has shown depth despite injuries to key players like linebacker Kam Robinson. They haven’t blown teams out every week, but they’ve found ways to win, showing a gritty confidence that’s a big advantage in a do-or-die game like the conference championship.
Duke made it to the ACC Championship Game for the first time since 2013 after a season full of ups and downs. They had moments where they looked like one of the best teams on their schedule but also struggled to maintain that level to push for a 10-win season or steady national ranking.
At the center of their success is QB Darian Mensah, who leads the ACC in passing yards per game (289.3) and touchdowns (26) heading into Week 14. Mensah transferred from Tulane before the season, and it's been a huge boost. He’s the star this year and should be that way again in 2026.
Defense has been a weak spot for Duke, though. Under coach Manny Diaz, who’s known for his defensive background, they’ve ranked in the bottom half of the ACC, giving up 409.8 yards and 33.3 points per game. Still, with Mensah at the helm, Duke has figured out how to win high-scoring games instead of grinding out defensive battles.
After back-to-back losses to UConn and Virginia, Duke’s chances looked shaky, but only the Virginia game affected their conference record. Now they get a rematch against Virginia with a lot more on the line. If Duke can start strong and protect the ball better, they could give Virginia a real fight this time.
Virginia totally dominated their first matchup, cruising to a 31-3 lead before Duke scored some late touchdowns that made the final score look closer at 31-17. Since then, Virginia has dealt with some key defensive injuries, which might even the playing field a bit. But Duke didn’t play their best in that game compared to how they’ve done most of the season. If Duke avoids an early hole and protects the ball, they could shake things up and maybe even win the ACC title despite having five losses.
Either way, this game will be a big one, with the winner having a shot at crashing the College Football Playoff.
I’m leaning toward Virginia to cover here. The Cavaliers have the more complete roster, the steadier defense, and the matchup advantage that matters most: they can take away Duke’s best weapon. Chandler Morris keeps the Virginia offense humming at 33.7 points per game, J’Mari Taylor adds a punishing run element, and this defense, allowing just 118 passing yards per game across its last three, matches up perfectly with
Duke’s pass-heavy identity.
Darian Mensah can sling it, but Duke’s defense gives up 30.5 points per game and ranks outside the top 100. That’s a nightmare against a Virginia offense that already handled the Blue Devils comfortably in their Week 12 meeting. History backs it up too: the Cavaliers are 9-1 SU/ATS in the last 10 matchups.
All signs point toward Virginia imposing control again. With Duke’s defensive issues and questionable offensive depth, especially if the WR room isn’t at full strength, I trust Virginia to finish the job and cover the number. Virginia handles business and wins this by a touchdown or more.
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